2010 Kona Prediction Time

Nothing like waiting until the last minute to get my 2010 predictions in. Here we are on the eve of the big race, and I've finally sat down to one of my favorite annual traditions, getting my thoughts for the how the race will play out down in my blog.

Lots of things to be excited about in this years race. Real chances for course records, a new comer on the women's side who is sure to factor deep into the race and potentially change the game, and a wide open men's field that will prove to be hard to handicap.

So without further ado, here we go, starting with the women.

I think we all have come to appreciate the brilliance that is Chrissie Wellington. We even have come to recognize her genius while in the midst of her era. No one in their right mind will predict a changing of the guard, so we look to other unknowns in the women's race. Frankly, even though the winner is a foregone conclusion (on par with Tyson over Buster Douglas!) there are a couple of things to be excited about. One is what time Chrissie will post. Her time in Germany earlier this year was and still is mind boggling. The question of if she will go sub 8:40 on the big island is one I'm excited to see unfold. Where she'll place overall is also something to watch. Can she crack the top 15 overall? Another thing to watch out for is what Mirinda Carfrae does on the bike. Will she go sub 5 hrs and narrow her gap to Chrissie coming off the bike this year. Finally, I look forward to seeing Julie Dibbens make the jump to IM. She can swim and bike like no other and could have a gap on Chrissie coming off the bike. She is a ~3:20 marathoner so she'll need one to be a factor for the win by the half way point of the marathon.


(Updated 11:07 CT on race morning) In light of the news that Chrissie has withdrawn due to illness, I wanted to quickly give my thoughts. I think this is a good thing for the big swim/bikers who should come off the bike with big leads and no solid runners with them. Dibbens, Van Vlerken, Griesbauer and Macel along with others should come off with a good lead, and it will be up for the Corbins and Carfae's to bring them back.

In light of the news, I like the podium to be 1. Carfrae, 2. Dibbens, 3. Van Vlerken

Podium: 1. Chrissie, 2. Carfrae, 3. Dibbens
Sleeper: Catriona Morrison - She toed the line last year with a hefty case of swine flu and gutted it out, but didn't make it on to the run. She has loads of talent and is a name you always hear or read the big guns talking about as someone to look out for. Another sleeper for me will be Sam McGlone. She finished 2nd to Chrissie in her first win back in '07 and has had a string of bad luck ever since with injuries and the like. She had a great end to '09 with a strong performance at IMAZ but her '10 hasn't quite been what you'd hope, still she could push to crack the top 3.
Sentimental Favorite: It has to be a tie between Hillary Biscay for the personal connection, and Lindsey Corbin for her outstanding blog and approach on life. She is in good form this year with a win a IMCDA and some strong showings on the 70.3 circuit.

And on to the men. What a field! I see 7 guys who I believe have legit shots at wining the thing. You might as well put Alexander, Lieto, Realert, Potts, Hennings, Van Hoenacker, and Llanos in a hat and draw names. It is hard to pick against Alexander as he is so talented, so steady, and is a machine.

What I think does him in this year is the way the race breaks down. Without the speed suits this year, the swim should be more wide open which means the bike will start out more fragmented, and will likely stay that way with groups getting big gaps. If the guys are smart, they don't do any work in the main group and make Crowie put out in an effort to tax him prior to the run. We'll see, it certainly hasn't worked out that way in the past. There have always been an ample number of guys shooting for a top 10 spot in hopes of getting the spot in next years race, and as a result, guys might be playing it conservative from a competitive perspective. With the change to WTC rules and the top 10 no longer qualifying for next year, the dynamic on the bike should change.

One thing is certain however, the men's race is going to be great.


Podium: 1. Raelert 2. Henning 3. Alexander. I think Raelert gets away on the bike just behind the stud group, and runs them down by mile 15. He probably gets pushed by Henning most of the way, but the gap never closes to less the 2 mins, and he only gives up a couple of minutes to Alexander on the run, but has more than enough of a gap coming off the bike to keep Crowie at bay
Sleeper: Pete Jacobs - Pete will be out of the water quick, will bridge up with Potts early, and has the legs to ride with Lieto, the Germans (Twelsiek, Stadler, and Faris) and the other stud bikers if he chooses to. He may let that group go and fall in with the next group that will include Raelert and maybe Macca, but can't muster enough in the marathon to compete for the win. I think he'll be top 10 for sure.
Sentimental Favorite: Got to be Potts (like this blog post, picking Potts is also an annual event). How about if we also throw in Luke Bell to keep it interesting. After a great '03 placing top 5 while in his early 20s, he'd vanished into obscurity a bit. He seems to be back on form this year and could be a factor.

So there you go. Enjoy the fire works tomorrow. Here is hoping for good bandwidth and plenty of servers to bring us good coverage.

Longhorn Tri

Two weeks from tomorrow, I'll slip into Decker Lake and set off for 70.3 miles of fun in Austin, Texas for the Longhorn 70.3 Half Ironman Distance Triathlon.

Training has been going well, and I'm optimistic I'll have a good day. I put in a solid 10 week build for the race, and am feeling better than I have in the past 18-24 months or so. 10 weeks isn't a lot, but they've been a quality 10 weeks, and given my home and work life, 10 is about as good as I've been able to do in stringing them together in quite some time. Other than this little nagging cold Jake brought home from a birthday party last weekend that he's distributed around the family, I feel good. I'm hoping to shake the cold by middle of next week.

I know very little about the course, but I'd imagine the swim will be compact with lots of catching of earlier waves, not too choppy from winds, but well turned up from the hundreds of people who hit the water ahead of me. The bike is supposed to be "fun" according to David, with some rollers, smooth surfaces, but just a little bit of automobile traffic. I've actually walked a 5k out on the run course, so I am vaguely familiar with it, but am sure I am in for surprirses. About half of each of the two loops is on grass, and the course is famous for a hill called "Quadzilla" which doesn't sound welcoming. This year, they've set timing mats at the bottom and top of "Quadzilla" and will be giving out awards for the top male and female times up the hill.

My only 70.3 time was from Timberman in 2007, and I was a 6:08. I am certain I am more fit this year, and think I handle rollers better than true climbs like there are in NH, so I think the course itself might hand me 5 mins. I've also added aero wheels and an aero helmet to my bike set up, however I don't think I'll be in a wetsuit for this race, but the net of the 3 probably gives me another 5 mins.

I haven't spent too much time thinking about what my time might be. Partly because I really am not sure what I'm capable of, but partly because I don't want to be chasing a goal time that is out of reach, then blowing up on the course. I'll just say that I'd like to go under 6 hrs, and think I can do that.

I'm already looking ahead to what is next. Running has been going well lately, and I've decided to see if I can take my running a big step forward in the fall/winter, and have taken a couple of steps to do that. I have procured an amazing running coach who is going to work with me over the winter, and am going to do a propper run build up and peak for a half marathon in late February.

Who is this amazing running coach? None other than David Gillen, my neighbor, co-worker, and tri buddy who I speak of often here. David is headed out to SF in about a month to do a weekend triathlon clinic, and will become a USAT Certified Triathlon coach upon completion. He is working with his wife Sarah this fall in hopes of guiding her to a Boston Qualifying time at the White Rock Marathon in Dallas this December. David has a wealth of knowledge on endurance sports, and I'm really looking forward to his guidance this winter.

If anyone is interested in talking to David about his coaching, you can access his blog The Gillens here.

Thats all for now. Here is to hoping for healthy legs, and pleasant weather 2 weeks from tomorrow.

David Does IM USA

---Update 7/20/08---

An amazing effort, on an unforgettable day. David went an 11:58.56, setting a PR by 45 minutes, and slipping under the mythical 12 hour mark.

Talk about Mr. Consistency! David was 123rd place out of the swim with a mind boggling 1:09.43, moved up to 115 with a steady negative split 6:11 bike, and held that 115 spot with a curageous 4:24.33 marathon.

I watched much of the coverage as my friend Hillary had me hanging on a thread in search of a win. She was in the lead from the swim through 20 miles of the run in the women's pro field, so I can tell after watching as much of the coverage as I did that it was WET! It rained all day it seemed.

This effort by David on this day was all the more spectacular given the weather, that is for sure.

Job well done, now go get dry!

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My buddy David who you may recall from my Cross Timbers Classic post or my Timberman Race Report is doing IM Lake Placid this Sunday, and I just got off the phone with him giving him my prediction for what he is going to do on Sunday. I figured I'd post it here for posterity.

This is David's 2nd IM, his first being the Redman Iron Distance Triathlon in Sept of 2006. He went something like 12:43 there, and I believe David should break this PR handily. In fact, I told him he could probably PR without even getting his face wet for the entire swim.

Still, his goal is to PR, so going sub 12:43 is the job at hand.

I've ridden with David a bit, and as I mentioned in my Timberman report, David is a billy goat and can fly up hills, so he will be well suited for the climbs in upstate NY. He is a heck of a runner, although not as good as his wife Sarah, and I think he's focussed on his swim a bit more this go-round as he usually does the minimum in the pool (although I do even less). I did an open water swim with him on the 4th of July and he seemed steady and under no stress holding a good pace.

So with all of this info, here is my prediction for him:

Swim 1:25
T1 :07
Bike 6:00
T2 :07
Run 4:09
Total: 11:48

Good luck David, we'll be watching online!

Hillary's Ready for IMAZ

Some of you know that Pro Triathlete and all around insane iron chick Hillary Biscay and I have been friends since we were about 11. We swam together on the same club team for many years in L.A., and have been keeping in touch via email over the past couple of years.

Any how, I typically send her a quick good luck note before her big races of the year, and if you know Hillary, she usually has 5-7 big IM races a year (hence the insane iron chick title).

I got a note from her tonight and she says she is feeling fit for IMAZ this weekend, and is looking forward to a good race on her new home course.

The field will be tough with Michellie Jones and Heather Golnick there, but we're hoping for another spot on the podium for Hillary, which would be great given some of the health setbacks she had early this year.

Go Hill!

Kona Prediction Time

Alright! Lets get to some predictions.

I'm very juiced for the race on Saturday. Although I put little faith in the weather forecast as it can turn on a dime, and the race covers such a large area, that temps will fluctuate with the terrain, it isn't looking too bad. It it supposed to rain on Kona on Friday night, which should do alot to cool temps at least early on on Sat morning. It is calling for highs in the mid to low 80s, with a real feel of 86 degrees. Winds 13 mph out of the east with 24 mph gusts. Humidity looks to be the biggest concern.

Although I've got family in town for the weekend, and my daughters b-day party on Sat morning, I should be able to watch the end of the swim and most of the bike. I'm volunteering at a fundraiser dinner on Sat night, so I will miss the finish, which I am not happy about at all, but its for a good cause. We're raising money for servicemen and women called to active duty who have taken a pay hit by having to leave their civilian jobs. The funds raised help to make ends meet for the families while they have a soldier abroad.

And now, for the predictions.
Mens Podium: 1. Norman Stadler, 2. Macca, 3. Marino Vanhoenaker
Sleeper: Timo Bracht
Most intriguing: Craig Alexander

I think Norman is just too good, and will probably ride another sub 4:20 bike and will show another step forward in his running putting down a 2:53 as he is pushed by Macca. The big wild card is the shorty wetsuit. Norman had it last year, and swam out of his mind. This year, everyone has it, so if Norman is out of the swim 3+ minutes back of Macca rather than just 14 secs, it could be a different story. My sentimental favorite is Craig Alexander. I think this guy is the most talented triathlete in the world right now, and would love to see him in the mix in his 2nd IM race ever. You know Llanos, Faris, Beke, Brown, and Bell will all be top 10.

Women's Podium: 1. Natascha Badman, 2. Michellie Jones, 3. Jo Lawn
Sleeper: Sam McGlone
Sentimental Favorite: Hillary Biscay

Natascha has been on fire this year. Just look at her Eagleman results. That is blazing. I think she's got redemption on her mind, and will have the nutrition dialed in, and will crush this one. Jo Lawn was dominant in her IMNZ victory, showed improvement on her swim, and we know she can bike. Sam McGlone is going to be my sleeper, and she very well could end up pushing Michellie for the #2 spot on the podium. This will be Sam's first ever IM, so only experience will hold her back. Many know that Hillary Biscay and I have known each other since we were 11 years old, and swam club together for many years. She is the toughest woman in the field, but IMHI will be her 3rd IM in 7 weeks, which is absolutely insane! We'll be pulling for a top 10 finish for her. She is such a stud! Two other women I want to mention, although I don't have a spot for them are Belinda Granger and Des Ficker. Belinda was dominant at Lake Placid, and assuming she has recovered, will be in the mix. Des is also a sentimental favorite given the TX connection and that I've raced with her at 3 different events, but she has had some health issues this year and has a history of blowing up at races. You can't fault her aggressiveness however. Besides folks I've mentioned, I'm sure Bentley, Kehr, and Major will round out the top 10.

Have fun watching everyone. IM Live has promised better coverage than ever before. Apparently they will have feeds from the NBC cameras out on the course. It should be good.