The weather is shaping up to be decent. Doesn't look too hot (real feel of 92) and the winds should be okay. These athletes will cover a lot of ground however, and if you know Hawaii at all, you know it doesn't take much to go from one climate to another, so you never know what to expect.
What I'm going to do this year is predict my podium for both the men and women, one sleeper athlete, and my most intriguing athlete also from the men's and women's race. So without further ado, lets get started.
Women
At first glance, you could be fooled into thinking the women's race will be dominated by Chrissie again. She's killed the competition the last two years despite rookie jitters two years ago and the well publicized mechanical out on the Queen K last year, however like Lee Corso says, "not so fast." Chrissie left the confines of Team TBB, set out under the tutelage of tri legend Simon Lessing as her new coach, but has since left Lessing and is self coaching herself at the moment. She crushed it at Roth with a World Record of 8:31, but has had some less dominant performances in some Oly's and 70.3s since.
She'll be pushed by Rebeka Keat, Yvonne Van Vlerken, Sandra Wallenhorst, Lindsay Corbin, and Gina Ferguson, with Keat likely to give her the biggest push.
Still, we'd be out of our mind to go against the Queen. I thought hard about picking Keat or my surprise athlete in the women's field Mirinda Carfrae, but I decided that would be me trying to sensationalize this process by going against the grain. If it was my money on the line, Chrissie would be my girl.
Podium: 1. Wellington, 3. Rebeka Keat, 4. Gina Ferguson
Sleeper Athlete: Mirinda Carfrae
Sentimental Favorite: Lindsay Corbin (because she writes an awesome blog)
You might have noticed I have Keat and Ferguson finishing 3rd and 4th up above. It is because I think Carfrae will take second. This will be her first full IM, but I think she can match the effort of Sam McGlone when she finished second to Chrissie two years ago in her first move up to IM. She's got amazing top end speed, and can run with any of them. She'll sit in with the top men age groupers on the bike, and out split the rest of the field to grab her podium spot.
Mirinda CarfraeMen:
The men's race will be much more wide open than the women's. I've got 10 guys that I like in this thing so picking my podium I'm sure was flawed with all sorts of strange rationalizations on my part, of which many won't likely come true.
As I was thinking about this post earlier this year, I was all prepared to write a long story about Andy Potts and Rasmus Henning, both who I thought had a great shot at winning this thing this year. However Potts had a terrible bike crash with an age grouper at the Chicago Tri just two months ago, and Henning apparently broke his hand a week and a half ago, and hasn't been able to swim, and won't until the day of the race. Hennings fitness is likely to be fine, and I suspect he'll still be a factor in the race, but the disruption is probably enough to crack his armor, and with this field, you've got to be bullet proof to pull through.
So we are left with the usual suspects - Craig Alexander, Macca, Norman, Eneko Llano, Marino Vanhoenacker, Cam Brown, Chris Lieto as well as some interesting upstarts such as Terenzo Bozzone, Ronnie Schildknect, and Andreas Raelert, which will make for a great race.
I'd like nothing more than to see the Alexander v Macca show down we all anticipated last year, but I just don't think we'll see it for a number of reasons. First, the rest of the field is too good to give away the stage to these guys. Second, I just don't think Macca has it in him suffer like he'll have to to make up the time necessary on the run to run through the field. Not after he's tasted the victory in Kona. He was SO driven to win this thing, that I just think the edge is gone and he hasn't put in the work, nor is willing to take himself to that dark place to do it again. Alexander, on the other hand strikes me as the type who can be a repeat performer. Much more level headed in his approach with a killer instinct, and a world of talent. Just one guys ill-advised opinion, but that is all this post is.
So I think Potts and Henning will be at the front of the swim, will ride well early but fade when the likes of Lieto, Norman, and some of the other big cycling Europeans like Twelseik ride through them. Alexander, Macca, Brown, Lovato and others will stay back in the pack, limit their losses, and it will be the guy who can lay down the 2:42 marathon who will win it.
That is why I like Timo Bracht, Andreas Raelert, Schildknect, and Cam Brown to be there in the end.
So here is how I have it:
Podium: 1. Timo Bracht, 2. Craig Alexander, 3. Eneko Llanos
Sleeper Athlete: Andreas Raelert (I still am holding back on putting Henning in here)
Sentimental Favorite: Andy Potts
Timo's performance at IM Germany just can't be ignored. Had he not skipped a stop in the penalty tent last year after a drafting call, he would have been 5th, and I think he is motivated to finish the deal this time. Llanos is very consistent, and will be there in the end with a solid all around race.
Timo BrachtI like Raelert because the guy can fly. He's got great speed that we saw as he reeled in Bozzone in Clearwater last year at the 70.3 worlds, but just ran out of real estate. I think he ran a 1:12. He got an Olympic pedigree making the German team in 2000 and 2004 and just seems to be very aggressive in the two races I've seen him in on TV. He's shown he can go long with great races at IMAZ that I can recall off hand where he ran a 2:46 for the win against a good field.
I'll always be a big fan of Andy Potts and was heart broken when I heard of his accident. Apparently he had some heart issues after the crash, so unlike Henning, he probably had to go inactive for a while. Not good in August with this thing in Oct. But any swimmer turned triathlete gets my vote, and after hearing the guy speak at Timberman last year, he is all class.
So there we go. It should be an awesome race. I'll be in the air flying home from Minneapolis for the start, but hope to catch the bike and swim when I return home.
