Alright! Lets get to some predictions.
I'm very juiced for the race on Saturday. Although I put little faith in the weather forecast as it can turn on a dime, and the race covers such a large area, that temps will fluctuate with the terrain, it isn't looking too bad. It it supposed to rain on Kona on Friday night, which should do alot to cool temps at least early on on Sat morning. It is calling for highs in the mid to low 80s, with a real feel of 86 degrees. Winds 13 mph out of the east with 24 mph gusts. Humidity looks to be the biggest concern.
Although I've got family in town for the weekend, and my daughters b-day party on Sat morning, I should be able to watch the end of the swim and most of the bike. I'm volunteering at a fundraiser dinner on Sat night, so I will miss the finish, which I am not happy about at all, but its for a good cause. We're raising money for servicemen and women called to active duty who have taken a pay hit by having to leave their civilian jobs. The funds raised help to make ends meet for the families while they have a soldier abroad.
And now, for the predictions.
Mens Podium: 1. Norman Stadler, 2. Macca, 3. Marino Vanhoenaker
Sleeper: Timo Bracht
Most intriguing: Craig Alexander
I think Norman is just too good, and will probably ride another sub 4:20 bike and will show another step forward in his running putting down a 2:53 as he is pushed by Macca. The big wild card is the shorty wetsuit. Norman had it last year, and swam out of his mind. This year, everyone has it, so if Norman is out of the swim 3+ minutes back of Macca rather than just 14 secs, it could be a different story. My sentimental favorite is Craig Alexander. I think this guy is the most talented triathlete in the world right now, and would love to see him in the mix in his 2nd IM race ever. You know Llanos, Faris, Beke, Brown, and Bell will all be top 10.
Women's Podium: 1. Natascha Badman, 2. Michellie Jones, 3. Jo Lawn
Sleeper: Sam McGlone
Sentimental Favorite: Hillary Biscay
Natascha has been on fire this year. Just look at her Eagleman results. That is blazing. I think she's got redemption on her mind, and will have the nutrition dialed in, and will crush this one. Jo Lawn was dominant in her IMNZ victory, showed improvement on her swim, and we know she can bike. Sam McGlone is going to be my sleeper, and she very well could end up pushing Michellie for the #2 spot on the podium. This will be Sam's first ever IM, so only experience will hold her back. Many know that Hillary Biscay and I have known each other since we were 11 years old, and swam club together for many years. She is the toughest woman in the field, but IMHI will be her 3rd IM in 7 weeks, which is absolutely insane! We'll be pulling for a top 10 finish for her. She is such a stud! Two other women I want to mention, although I don't have a spot for them are Belinda Granger and Des Ficker. Belinda was dominant at Lake Placid, and assuming she has recovered, will be in the mix. Des is also a sentimental favorite given the TX connection and that I've raced with her at 3 different events, but she has had some health issues this year and has a history of blowing up at races. You can't fault her aggressiveness however. Besides folks I've mentioned, I'm sure Bentley, Kehr, and Major will round out the top 10.
Have fun watching everyone. IM Live has promised better coverage than ever before. Apparently they will have feeds from the NBC cameras out on the course. It should be good.
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3 comments:
I might know now as much as you about the pros, but I still like Macca for the men, and I thinking Jones could repeat for the women.
About what time, our time, will the first men be finishing? Do you know?
The pros start at 11:45a Central time, so the men should be finishing around 8:00p +/- 15 mins.
Macca certainly appears to be the favorite this year. He seems to be tops on many people's list.
Another name I didn't put much stock into, but I'm seeing popping up in alot of interviews is Tim Deboom. He hasn't really had any overly impressive results this year, but I recall him podiuming somewhere, perhaps IMAZ. Anyhow, the experts say he "looks good!" Whatever that means. I still think he'll end up in the 7-12th place range, but would love to see an American get in the mix. I'm sure Chris Lieto will be out towards the front of the bike leg, but beyond Lieto, Deboom, Widoff, and Lovato, the US doesn't have any other potential top 10ers. Maybe one of them can surprise everyone and grab a top 5.
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