Lots of things to be excited about in this years race. Real chances for course records, a new comer on the women's side who is sure to factor deep into the race and potentially change the game, and a wide open men's field that will prove to be hard to handicap.
So without further ado, here we go, starting with the women.
I think we all have come to appreciate the brilliance that is Chrissie Wellington. We even have come to recognize her genius while in the midst of her era. No one in their right mind will predict a changing of the guard, so we look to other unknowns in the women's race. Frankly, even though the winner is a foregone conclusion (on par with Tyson over Buster Douglas!) there are a couple of things to be excited about. One is what time Chrissie will post. Her time in Germany earlier this year was and still is mind boggling. The question of if she will go sub 8:40 on the big island is one I'm excited to see unfold. Where she'll place overall is also something to watch. Can she crack the top 15 overall? Another thing to watch out for is what Mirinda Carfrae does on the bike. Will she go sub 5 hrs and narrow her gap to Chrissie coming off the bike this year. Finally, I look forward to seeing Julie Dibbens make the jump to IM. She can swim and bike like no other and could have a gap on Chrissie coming off the bike. She is a ~3:20 marathoner so she'll need one to be a factor for the win by the half way point of the marathon.
(Updated 11:07 CT on race morning) In light of the news that Chrissie has withdrawn due to illness, I wanted to quickly give my thoughts. I think this is a good thing for the big swim/bikers who should come off the bike with big leads and no solid runners with them. Dibbens, Van Vlerken, Griesbauer and Macel along with others should come off with a good lead, and it will be up for the Corbins and Carfae's to bring them back.
In light of the news, I like the podium to be 1. Carfrae, 2. Dibbens, 3. Van Vlerken
Podium: 1. Chrissie, 2. Carfrae, 3. Dibbens
Sleeper: Catriona Morrison - She toed the line last year with a hefty case of swine flu and gutted it out, but didn't make it on to the run. She has loads of talent and is a name you always hear or read the big guns talking about as someone to look out for. Another sleeper for me will be Sam McGlone. She finished 2nd to Chrissie in her first win back in '07 and has had a string of bad luck ever since with injuries and the like. She had a great end to '09 with a strong performance at IMAZ but her '10 hasn't quite been what you'd hope, still she could push to crack the top 3.
Sentimental Favorite: It has to be a tie between Hillary Biscay for the personal connection, and Lindsey Corbin for her outstanding blog and approach on life. She is in good form this year with a win a IMCDA and some strong showings on the 70.3 circuit.
And on to the men. What a field! I see 7 guys who I believe have legit shots at wining the thing. You might as well put Alexander, Lieto, Realert, Potts, Hennings, Van Hoenacker, and Llanos in a hat and draw names. It is hard to pick against Alexander as he is so talented, so steady, and is a machine.
What I think does him in this year is the way the race breaks down. Without the speed suits this year, the swim should be more wide open which means the bike will start out more fragmented, and will likely stay that way with groups getting big gaps. If the guys are smart, they don't do any work in the main group and make Crowie put out in an effort to tax him prior to the run. We'll see, it certainly hasn't worked out that way in the past. There have always been an ample number of guys shooting for a top 10 spot in hopes of getting the spot in next years race, and as a result, guys might be playing it conservative from a competitive perspective. With the change to WTC rules and the top 10 no longer qualifying for next year, the dynamic on the bike should change.
One thing is certain however, the men's race is going to be great.
Podium: 1. Raelert 2. Henning 3. Alexander. I think Raelert gets away on the bike just behind the stud group, and runs them down by mile 15. He probably gets pushed by Henning most of the way, but the gap never closes to less the 2 mins, and he only gives up a couple of minutes to Alexander on the run, but has more than enough of a gap coming off the bike to keep Crowie at bay
Sleeper: Pete Jacobs - Pete will be out of the water quick, will bridge up with Potts early, and has the legs to ride with Lieto, the Germans (Twelsiek, Stadler, and Faris) and the other stud bikers if he chooses to. He may let that group go and fall in with the next group that will include Raelert and maybe Macca, but can't muster enough in the marathon to compete for the win. I think he'll be top 10 for sure.
Sentimental Favorite: Got to be Potts (like this blog post, picking Potts is also an annual event). How about if we also throw in Luke Bell to keep it interesting. After a great '03 placing top 5 while in his early 20s, he'd vanished into obscurity a bit. He seems to be back on form this year and could be a factor.
So there you go. Enjoy the fire works tomorrow. Here is hoping for good bandwidth and plenty of servers to bring us good coverage.
1 comment:
This was pretty close man. You should work in Vegas. Maybe the most impressive call was Jacobs. Although you had it backwards, bike - run wise, still a big call. He smoked that run.
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